Will AI Replace Software Developers?
Thu, 02 May 2024 09:38:01 -0000
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Over the past year, I have been actively involved in generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) projects aimed at assisting developers in generating high-quality code. Our team has also adopted Copilot as part of our development environment. These tools offer a wide range of capabilities that can significantly reduce development time. From automatically generating commit comments and code descriptions to suggesting the next logical code block, they have become indispensable in our workflow.
According to a recent study by McKinsey, quantify the level of productivity gain in the following areas:
Figure 1. Software engineering: speeding developer work as a coding assistant (McKinsey)
This study shows that “The direct impact of AI on the productivity of software engineering could range from 20 to 45 percent of current annual spending on the function. This value would arise primarily from reducing time spent on certain activities, such as generating initial code drafts, code correction and refactoring, root-cause analysis, and generating new system designs. By accelerating the coding process, Generative AI could push the skill sets and capabilities needed in software engineering toward code and architecture design. One study found that software developers using Microsoft’s GitHub Copilot completed tasks 56 percent faster than those not using the tool. An internal McKinsey empirical study of software engineering teams found those who were trained to use generative AI tools rapidly reduced the time needed to generate and refactor code and engineers also reported a better work experience, citing improvements in happiness, flow, and fulfilment.”
What Makes the Code Assistant (Copilot) the Killer App for Gen AI?
The remarkable progress of AI-based code generation owes its success to the unique characteristics of programming languages. Unlike natural language text, code adheres to a structured syntax with well-defined rules. This structure enables AI models to excel in analyzing and generating code.
Several factors contribute to the swift evolution of AI-driven code generation:
- Structured nature of code–Code follows a strict format, making it amenable to automated analysis. The consistent structure allows AI algorithms to learn patterns and generate syntactically correct code.
- Validation tools–Compilers and other development tools play a crucial role. They validate code for correctness, ensuring that generated code adheres to language specifications. This continuous feedback loop enables AI systems to improve without human intervention.
- Repeatable work identification–AI excels at identifying repetitive tasks. In software development, there are numerous areas where routine work occurs, such as boilerplate code, data transformations, and error handling. AI can efficiently recognize and automate these repetitive patterns.
From Coding Assistant to Fully-Autonomous AI Software Engineer
The Cognition & Development Lab at Washington University in St. Louis investigates how infants and young children think, reason, and learn about the world around them. Their research focuses on the development of early social-cognitive capacities. They are the makers of Devin, the world’s first AI software engineer.
Devin possesses remarkable capabilities in software development in the following areas:
- Complex engineering tasks–With advances in long-term reasoning and planning, Devin can plan and execute complex engineering tasks that involve thousands of decisions. Devin recalls relevant context at every step, learns over time, and even corrects mistakes.
- Coding and debugging–Devin can write code, debug, and address bugs in codebases. It autonomously finds and fixes issues, making it a valuable teammate for developers.
- End-to-end app development–Devin builds and deploys apps from scratch. For example, it can create an interactive website, incrementally adding features requested by the user and deploying the app.
- AI model training and fine-tuning–Devin sets up fine-tuning for large language models, demonstrating its ability to train and improve its own AI models.
- Collaboration and communication–Devin actively collaborates with users. It reports progress in real-time, accepts feedback, and engages in design choices as needed.
- Real-world challenges–Devin tackles real-world GitHub issues found in open-source projects. It can also contribute to mature production repositories and address feature requests. Devin even takes on real jobs on platforms like Upwork, writing and debugging code for computer vision models.
The Devin project is a clear indication of how fast we move from simple coding assistants to more complete engineering capabilities.
Will AI Replace Software Developers?
When I asked this question recently during a Copilot training session that our team took, the answer was “No”, or to be more precise “Not yet”. The common thinking is that it provides a productivity enhancement tool that will save developers from spending time on tedious tasks such as documentation, testing, and so on. This could have been true yesterday, but as seen with project Devin, it already goes beyond simple assistance to full development engineering. We can rely on the experience from past transformations to learn a bit more about where this is all heading.
Learning from Cloud Transformation: Parallels with Gen AI Transformation
The advent of cloud computing, pioneered by AWS approximately 15 years ago, revolutionized the entire IT landscape. It introduced the concept of fully automated, API-driven data centers, significantly reducing the need for traditional system administrators and IT operations personnel. However, beyond the mere shrinking of the IT job market, the following parallel events unfolded:
- Traditional IT jobs shrank significantly–Small to medium-sized companies can now operate their IT infrastructure without dedicated IT operators. The cloud’s self-service capabilities have made routine maintenance and management more accessible.
- Emergence of new job titles: DevOps, SRO, and more–As organizations embrace cloud technologies, new roles emerge. DevOps engineers, site reliability operators (SROs), and other specialized positions became essential for optimizing cloud-based systems.
- The rise of SaaS startups–Cloud computing lowered the barriers of entry for delivering enterprise-grade solutions. Startups capitalized on this by becoming more agile and growing faster than established incumbents.
- Big tech companies’ accelerated growth–Tech giants like Google, Facebook, and Microsoft swiftly adopted cloud infrastructure. The self-service nature of APIs and SaaS offerings allowed them to scale rapidly, resulting in record growth rates.
Impact on Jobs and Budgets
While traditional IT jobs declined, the transformation also yielded positive outcomes:
- Increased efficiency and quality–Companies produced more products of higher quality at a fraction of the cost. The cloud’s scalability and automation played a pivotal role in achieving this.
- Budget shift from traditional IT to cloud–Gartner’s IT spending reports reveal a clear shift in budget allocation. Cloud investments have grown steadily, even amidst the disruption caused by the introduction of cloud infrastructure, see the following figure:
Figure 2. Cloud transformation’s impact on IT budget allocation
Looking Ahead: AI Transformation
As we transition to the era of AI, we can anticipate similar trends:
- Decline in traditional jobs–Just as cloud computing transformed the job landscape, AI adoption may lead to the decline of certain traditional roles.
- Creation of new jobs–Simultaneously, AI will create novel opportunities. Roles related to AI development, machine learning, and data science will flourish.
Short Term Opportunity
Organizations will allocate more resources to AI initiatives. The transition to AI is not merely an evolutionary step; it is a strategic imperative.
According to a research conducted by ISG on behalf of Glean, Generative AI projects consumed an average of 1.5 percent of IT budgets in 2023. These budgets are expected to rise to 2.7 percent in 2024 and further increase to 4.3 percent in 2025. Organizations recognize the potential of AI to enhance operational efficiency and bridge IT talent gaps. Gartner predicts that Generative AI impacts will be more pronounced in 2025. Despite this, worldwide IT spending is projected to grow by 8 percent in 2024. Organizations continue to invest in AI and automation to drive efficiency. The White House budget proposes allocating $75 billion for IT spending at civilian agencies in 2025. This substantial investment aims to deliver simple, seamless, and secure government services through technology.
The impact of AI extends far beyond the confines of the IT job market. It permeates nearly every facet of our professional landscape. As with any significant transformation, AI presents both risks and opportunities. Those who swiftly embrace it are more likely to seize the advantages.
So, what steps can software developers take to capitalize on this opportunity?
Tips for Software Developers in the Age of AI
In the immediate term, developers can enhance their effectiveness when working with AI assistants by acquiring a combination of the following technical skills:
- Learn AI basics–I would recommend starting the learning with AI Terms 101. I also recommend following the leading AI podcasts. I found this useful to keep myself up to date in this space and learn some useful tips and updates from industry experts.
- Use coding assistant tools (Copilot)–Coding assistant tools are definitely the low-hanging fruit and probably the simplest step to get into the AI development world. There is a growing list of tools that are available and can be integrated seamlessly into your existing development IDE. The following provides a useful reference to The Top 11 AI Coding Assistants to Use in 2024.
- Learn machine learning (ML) and deep learning concepts–Understanding the fundamentals of ML and deep learning is crucial. Familiarize yourself with neural networks, training models, and optimization techniques.
- Data science and analytics–Developers should grasp data preprocessing, feature engineering, and model evaluation. Proficiency in tools like Pandas, NumPy, and scikit-learn is beneficial.
- Frameworks and tools–Learn about popular AI frameworks such as TensorFlow, and PyTorch. These tools facilitate model building and deployment.
More skilled developers will need to learn how to create their own “AI engineers” which they will train and fine tune to assist them with user interface (UI), backend, and testing development tasks. They could even run a team of “AI engineers” to write an entire project.
Will AI Reduce the Demand for Software Engineers?
Not necessarily. In the case of cloud transformation, developers with AI expertise will likely be in high demand. Those who will not be able to adapt to this new world are likely to stay behind and face the risk of losing their job.
It would be fair to assume that the scope of work, post-AI transformation, will grow and will not stay stagnant. As an example, we will likely see products adding more “self-driving” capabilities, where they could run more complete tasks without the need for human feedback or enable close to human interaction with the product.
Under this assumption, the scope of new AI projects and products is going to grow, and that growth should balance the declining demand for traditional software engineering jobs.
Conclusion
As a history enthusiast, I often find parallels in the past that can serve as a guide to our future. The industrial era witnessed disruptive technological advancements that reshaped job markets. Some professions became obsolete, while new ones emerged. As a society, we adapted quickly, discovering new growth avenues. However, the emergence of AI presents unique challenges. Unlike previous disruptions, AI simultaneously impacts a wide range of job markets and progresses at an unparalleled pace. The implications are indeed profound.
Recent research by Nexford University on How Will Artificial Intelligence Affect Jobs 2024-2030 reveals some startling predictions. According to a report by the investment bank Goldman Sachs, AI could potentially replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs. It could automate a quarter of the work tasks in the US and Europe, leading to new job creation and a productivity surge. The report also suggests that AI could increase the total annual value of goods and services produced globally by 7 percent. It predicts that two-thirds of jobs in the US and Europe are susceptible to some degree of AI automation, and around a quarter of all jobs could be entirely performed by AI.
The concerns raised by Yuval Noa Harari, a historian and professor at the Department of History of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, resonate with many. The rapid evolution of AI may indeed lead to significant unemployment.
However, when it comes to software engineers, we can assert with confidence that regardless of how automated our processes become, there will always be a fundamental need for human expertise. These skilled professionals perform critical tasks such as maintenance, updates, improvements, error corrections, and the setup of complex software and hardware systems. These systems often require coordination among multiple specialists for optimal functionality.
In addition to these responsibilities, computer system analysts play a pivotal role. They review system capabilities, manage workflows, schedule improvements, and drive automation. This profession has seen a surge in demand in recent years and is likely to remain in high demand.
In conclusion, AI represents both risk and opportunity. While it automates routine tasks, it also paves the way for innovation. Our response will ultimately determine its impact.
References
- Economic potential of generative AI | McKinsey
- Introducing Devin, the first AI software engineer (cognition-labs.com)
- IT Spending & Budgets: Trends & Forecasts 2024
- Organizations continue to invest in AI and automation to drive efficiency
- This substantial investment aims to deliver simple, seamless, and secure government services through technology
- AI Terms 101: An A to Z AI Terminology Guide for Beginners
- 11 AI Podcasts That Will Shape Your Perspective (geekflare.com)\
- How Will Artificial Intelligence Affect Jobs 2024-2030 | Nexford University
- The Top 11 AI Coding Assistants to Use in 2024 | DataCamp
- Yuval Harari On The Future of Jobs & Technology, Intelligence vs Consciousness, & Future Threats to Humanity - Jacob Morgan (thefutureorganization.com)